Search results for "Fisher hypothesis"

Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation

2004

According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent with the theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1952 Q1 – 2000 Q2) reasonably well. It is found that the three-month treasury bill rate and inflation share a common nonlinear component that explains a large part of their persistence. The real interest rate is devoid of this component, indicating one-for-one m…

Linear and nonlinear interest rate sensitivity of Spanish banks

2011

Abstract Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks’ interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique…

The Fisher Hyphotesis and nominal interest rate decomposition: a structural VAR approach

2007

Carbon and inflation

2021

Abstract This paper investigates whether European Union Allowances (EUAs) can serve as an inflation hedge for two economic areas, four euro countries and two non-euro countries. The Extended Fisher Hypothesis is tested and the evidence shows a strong positive relationship between EUA returns and the unexpected inflation component in all the economic areas or countries analysed, except for the US. Therefore, EUAs are able to provide a hedge against unanticipated inflation rates.

US stock market sensitivity to interest and inflation rates: a quantile regression approach

2016

ABSTRACTThis article studies the sensitivity of the US stock market to nominal and real interest rates and inflation during the 2003–2013 period using quantile regression (QR). The empirical results show that the stock market has a significant sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation and finds differences across sectors and over time. Moreover, the effect of changes in both interest rates and inflation tends to be more pronounced during extreme market conditions, thus distinguishing expansion periods from recession periods.

Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US

2000

Abstract This paper offers two new results on interest rate rules. First, we show that the empirical evidence from 1970 onwards for the US is compatible with a Taylor rule when we consider the possibility of changes in the inflation target and in the real interest rate. Second, recursive estimates of a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule for EMU confirm an increasing weight for inflation in the area, possibly as a consequence of the EMS, and, furthermore, a convergence in the nineties to the German value observed for the whole period. This process has coincided with an important reduction in the deviation of inflation across EMU countries. The results also show that credibility probl…

A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU

2001

In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forward-looking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates …

Is the Fisher effect non-linear? some evidence for Spain, 1963–2002

2005

In this paper the role of non-linearities in the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, in order to shed some additional light on the mostly unfavourable evidence on the presence of a full Fisher effect. The analysis is applied to the case of Spain for the period 1963–2002, which allows previous results on the subject to be re-examined and extended. The empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration, so that cointegration between a pair of variables should be expected only once a certain threshold was reached.